Vendor Portal
Author: Mark Ainely | Partner GC Realty & Development & Co-Host Straight Up Chicago Investor Podcast
Forget the Zillow estimates. We analyzed every completed lease renewal across our portfolio from 2023 through 2025 to show what's really happening with rents in Cook, DuPage, Kane, McHenry, and the surrounding collar counties.
Every month, Zillow, Apartments.com, and a dozen other platforms publish rent estimates for the Chicago area. Those numbers are based on listing prices, which is what landlords ask for on vacant units. They don't tell you what's happening with the rents that actually matter most to investors: the renewals.
Renewals make up the majority of a landlord's revenue decisions each year. When a lease comes up, you're making a real call with real consequences. Push too hard and the tenant leaves, costing you a month (or more) of vacancy plus turnover expenses. Go too soft and you're leaving money on the table across 12 months of below market rent.
We don't have to guess about any of this. Our portfolio of 1,400+ residential units across the Chicago metro gives us a direct line into what's actually happening. So we pulled every completed lease renewal from 2023, 2024, and 2025 and ran the numbers. Three years. 2,190 signed leases. Six counties. Here's what we found.
The Three Year Trend: Steady Acceleration
The headline is straightforward. Rent increases at renewal have accelerated every single year, both in dollar terms and as a percentage of existing rent. This isn't a one year blip. It's a three year trajectory.
In 2023, the average renewal brought in an extra $65 per month. By 2025, that number hit $107. That's a 65% increase in the dollar amount landlords captured at each renewal over just two years. Median increases tell the same story: $60 in 2023, $55 in 2024, then jumping to $100 in 2025.
The slight dip in median from 2023 to 2024 is worth noting. It suggests that while top-end increases grew in 2024, the middle of the portfolio held relatively flat. Then 2025 saw broad based movement across the entire range, pushing both averages and medians sharply higher.
What about flat renewals? In 2023, a full 31% of renewals had zero increase, meaning nearly one in three tenants renewed at the same rent. By 2024, that dropped to 14.8%. By 2025, just 7.2%. That's a dramatic shift in landlord confidence over three years. The market went from cautious to assertive.
County by County: Three Years of Divergence
The Chicago metro isn't one market. Three years of data makes the differences between counties much clearer than a single year snapshot ever could.
Cook County is the real story here. With 1,372 renewals over three years, it's the most statistically significant dataset in the group. The trajectory went from 4.45% in 2023 to 5.00% in 2024 to 7.04% in 2025. That's not gradual. The 2025 jump of two full percentage points represents a meaningful acceleration. Average dollar increases hit $116 per month in 2025.
DuPage County showed an interesting pattern: increases actually dipped in 2024 (from 5.83% to 4.91%) before rebounding to 6.34% in 2025. Across 411 renewals over three years, DuPage has been consistently in the 5% to 6% range with 2024 as the outlier year.
Kane and McHenry both peaked in 2024 (6.30% and 6.49% respectively) and pulled back slightly in 2025. This suggests the collar counties may have hit a near term ceiling for percentage increases, even as Cook County continued to accelerate. Both still delivered healthy 5%+ increases in 2025.
The Cook County acceleration is the biggest takeaway from the county data. While the collar counties showed a rise then flatten pattern, Cook went from middle of the pack in 2023 to leading the group in 2025. If you're invested in Cook County, your rent growth has been accelerating faster than your suburban peers.
The Rent Band Effect: Three Years of Catch Up Growth
One of the most powerful patterns in this data is the inverse relationship between current rent level and the percentage increase at renewal. This held true every single year.
Units renting for under $1,200 per month saw the most dramatic movement: 7.69% in 2023, 7.90% in 2024, then an explosion to 13.88% in 2025. That's an average of $143 per month more on a unit that might have been renting for $1,000. These are properties closing the gap to market rate, and the data shows that gap is narrowing fast.
The under $1,200 segment is also visibly shrinking. It went from 164 renewals in 2023 to just 58 in 2025. Those units didn't disappear. They graduated into higher rent bands as successive increases pushed them past the $1,200 threshold. Meanwhile, the $1,600 to $1,999 band more than doubled (106 to 236) and the $2,500+ band more than tripled (26 to 84).
At the higher end, the $2,500+ band actually dipped to 2.89% in 2024 before recovering to 4.49% in 2025. Premium units have less room for percentage growth, but they still delivered $131 per month in average increases during 2025.
The rent band migration story: In 2023, 28% of renewals were under $1,200/month. By 2025, that's down to 7%. The $1,600+ bands went from 32% of renewals in 2023 to 53% in 2025. The portfolio is moving upmarket through organic rent growth, not just new acquisitions.
The Rent Decrease Question
Transparency matters. Not every renewal goes up, and glossing over that would undermine the credibility of everything else in this report.
Rent decreases were rare in 2023 (just 0.5% of renewals, or 3 out of 580). They ticked up to 1.8% in 2024 (14 out of 768), then to 4.2% in 2025 (35 out of 842). That upward trend deserves context.
A rent decrease on renewal is almost always a strategic decision. It might be a long term tenant where the owner wants to lock in stability. It might be a unit where a previous aggressive increase needs to be corrected. Or it might be a property where maintenance issues or neighborhood factors warrant a concession to avoid costly turnover.
4.2% of renewals with a decrease, in a year where the average increase was $107 per month, tells you this isn't a market under pressure. It's a market where good operators are making targeted adjustments while the broader trend moves firmly upward.
What This Means for Chicago Area Investors
Three years of data tell a more complete story than any single year snapshot. Here are the key takeaways.
Rent growth is real, and it's compounding. The average renewal increase went from $65 to $76 to $107 over three years. That's not linear. It's accelerating. On a $1,500/month unit, you're capturing roughly $1,284 more in annual rent in 2025 than you would have on a similar renewal in 2023.
Cook County is leading the charge. While the collar counties showed a rise then plateau pattern, Cook accelerated from 4.45% to 7.04% over three years. The largest county in the portfolio is also delivering the strongest growth trajectory.
Buy low, grow fast. Properties with rents under $1,200 have consistently delivered the highest percentage increases. If you're acquiring below market units and executing a professional renewal strategy, the data confirms you can expect outsized catch up growth.
The flat renewal era is ending. Zero increase renewals dropped from 31% in 2023 to 7.2% in 2025. Landlords across the Chicago metro are increasingly confident in pushing rents at renewal. The question isn't whether to increase, it's by how much.
This data exists because someone tracked it. Most property management companies can't produce three years of renewal data broken out by county and rent band across 2,190 leases. If your property manager can't give you this level of transparency, that's a conversation worth having.
Don’t Go At This Alone
This is a lot of information you need to know if you plan to invest in the Chicago market and it may seem overwhelming, but real estate investing in Chicago is a team sport. Who is on your real estate investing team? Do you even have a team? GC Realty & Development has a team of resources and we are willing to share all of our 20+ years of experience in both real estate investing and property management in the Chicago market. We will do this whether you hire us or not.
What gets me up in the morning and keeps me going 12+ hours a day is the ability to add value to Chicago real estate investors. If we connect, you will hear me say that our goal as a company is to add value to everyone we come in contact with. In return, we hope one day you will hire us for our Tenant Placement or Property Management Services. You can also refer us to someone you know that needs Tenant Placement or Property Management services, or I will take a simple 5 Star Google review. We love the opportunity when we get all three from the current and aspiring investors we get to help!
Reach out today!
Partner / Co-Host of Straight Up Chicago Investor Podcast
Methodology: This analysis includes all completed lease renewals processed through GC Realty & Development's portfolio for calendar years 2023 (580 renewals), 2024 (768 renewals), and 2025 (842 renewals). Data is sourced from actual executed lease agreements across Cook, DuPage, Kane, McHenry, Will, Lake, and Kendall counties. Percentage and dollar increases are calculated from the difference between the previous lease rent and the new renewal rent. County data is sourced directly from the property management system. Rent bands are based on the pre-renewal (previous) rent amount.
