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Author: Mark Ainely | Partner GC Realty & Development & Co-Host Straight Up Chicago Investor Podcast

For the past few years, conversations around interest rates have dominated real estate headlines. Investors have been waiting for clarity, and in this Straight Up Tuesday Tip, Chris Puleo of Neighborhood Loans joins Mark Ainley and Tom Shallcross to explain why we might finally be seeing a turn.

According to Chris, the writing is on the wall: political pressure, an upcoming Fed leadership change, and improving inflation numbers are all aligning for lower interest rates within the next six to twelve months. But waiting on the sidelines could cost investors big, because when rates drop, prices go up.

In This Episode of the Straight Up Chicago Investor Podcast

Chris breaks down the real economic factors behind rate movements and shares how investors can take advantage of today’s market instead of waiting for the “perfect” rate. With over 23 years in lending, surviving the 2008 crash and multiple market cycles, Chris explains why smart investors act now and refinance later.

He also discusses non-QM loan options like DSCR and bank-statement programs that are helping self-employed investors and portfolio owners continue to scale despite tighter traditional lending standards.

This episode gives a clear, grounded perspective on what’s ahead, and how to prepare for it.

Questions We Answer in This Episode

Q: Why does Chris Puleo believe interest rates are about to drop?
A: Because the current Federal Reserve Chair’s term is ending soon. The next appointment will likely favor lower interest rates due to ongoing political and economic pressure. Combined with cooling inflation data, it’s setting the stage for reductions within the next six months.

Q: What does this mean for real estate investors?
A: If you wait for rates to drop, you’ll likely pay 10–15% more for the same property later. Buying now means locking in a lower purchase price, then refinancing later when rates fall, improving your cash flow and equity position.

Q: What is a “no-cost refinance” and how does it help?
A: For clients who work with Chris on their purchase, future refinances come with lender credits that cover title and bank fees. It’s a loyalty-based approach that allows investors to lower their rates later without taking a financial hit.

Q: What are non-QM and DSCR loans?
A: Non-QM (non-qualified mortgage) loans are alternatives for borrowers who don’t fit traditional income verification standards, like investors or self-employed clients. DSCR loans qualify based on rental income covering the mortgage payment, making them ideal for investment properties.

Q: Are current rates historically high?
A: No. Chris reminds listeners that today’s rates (6–7%) are close to long-term averages. Early 2000s investors thrived with similar rates, and rising rents are helping offset the difference.

Q: What’s happening in other real estate markets like Florida?
A: Markets are diverging. Florida saw massive appreciation (up to 350%) and is now showing inventory buildup, creating opportunities for investors. Illinois remains tight on supply, but opportunities exist for buyers who act strategically.

Q: How confident is Chris in his prediction?
A: “95%,” says Chris. He projects a 0.5–0.75% drop in rates by early spring 2026, and stabilization around 5.5–6% long-term, a range he calls healthy for both borrowers and the housing market.

Show Notes

00:00 – Intro: Tom Shallcross, Mark Ainley, and first-time Underground guest Chris Puleo.
00:15 – “Other basement” banter; Chris has an office in the same building.
00:28 – Set-up: why Chris thinks rates are coming down and the tangible reasons.
00:53 – Drivers: political pressure on the Fed; federal funds rate → mortgage rate “trickle-down.”
01:31 – Fed independence, reappointment timing; six months left in the chair’s term.
02:07 – Markets move on announcements before leadership changes; what that means for investors.
02:38 – Waiting risk: same property could be 10–15% more if you wait 6–9 months
02:56 – Strategy: buy now, refi later; improve cash flow after rates drop.
03:29 – What Chris means by “no-cost refi” (lender credits covering bank & title fees).
04:32 – Career context: 23 years, mergers, why the loan officer & team matter most.
05:52 – Product landscape: conforming/FHA the same everywhere; Non-QM making a comeback.
06:28 – DSCR & bank-statement loans explained; safer than “old days” stated income.
07:41 – Hedge both ways: buy to protect against rising rates; refi if they fall; rents up.
08:33 – National vs. local: Florida example (Lee County ~25k homes for sale) = opportunity; Chicago supply remains tight.
09:50 – Act market-by-market; Illinois still limited supply; assemble the right team.
10:20 – Confidence check: 95% confident rates are lower in ~7 months; inflation has cooled.
11:05 – Forecast: -0.50% to -0.75% by end of year/early spring; ~6% next year; 5.5–6% healthy long-term; 3% rates = “bad economy” signal.
11:56 – Wrap to Chicago Fact segment; sponsor shout-out (Neighborhood Loans – The Puleo Group).
12:24 – Bears trivia: which statement is not true? (Decatur Staleys, most wins, most HOFers, most retired numbers).
13:25 – Answer: “Most total wins” (Packers passed the Bears); winner announced.
13:41 – Thanks and call for listener projects/guest ideas.
13:52 – Sign-off.

Takeaways for Chicago Property Managers and Landlords

Interest rates are expected to drop 0.5–0.75% within the next six months.
Waiting for lower rates could mean paying 10–15% more for the same property.
Refinancing later lets investors lock in equity now and improve cash flow later.
Non-QM and DSCR loans open the door for investors who don’t fit traditional lending criteria.
Each market is local, Illinois remains tight on supply, while other states may offer discounts.
A healthy long-term market likely means rates between 5.5–6%, not 3%.
Rent growth is outpacing rate increases, keeping investments profitable.

Guest Name: Chris Puleo
Guest Company: The Puleo Group – Neighborhood Loans
Guest Link: https://neighborhoodloans.com

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Dear Investor,

If you are an investor in either the city or suburbs of Chicago, I would love to speak with you about how we can help you on your real estate journey. At GC Realty & Development LLC, we help hundreds of Chicagoland real estate owners and brokers each year manage their assets with both full service property management and tenant placement services.

We understand that every investor’s goals are unique, and we love learning about each client’s individual needs. If there is an opportunity to help you buy back your time by managing your rental property or finding quality tenants, please check us out.

Best Investing,